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Oct 05
2011
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Market Updates on My Favorite StocksPosted by: Stan Moore in Stans Blog on Oct 5, 2011 Tagged in: Untagged
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Dear Friends,
Update – Oct 4 aftermarket. Wow! What can I say after today's action in our stocks. I wanted to get this out to you after the market opened this morning (Oct 4) but I couldn't get it out fast enough. My apology. I added a bit of new data.
We are sitting on the 200 MMA and the 40% buy for the entire up move off the March '09 lows. The market had broken temporarily below today and then tested the August 8th overnight low. See attached monthly chart.
As much as I love my ideas and add to them on weakness the shorts and sellers are simply overwhelming the small buyers. The world is in crisis. The analysts that follow these companies downgrade them or walk away. I saw this happen in HUN back in 12/08. I watched HUN drop from $24 in 1207 to $3 on a busted take over deal. Every analyst said their debt was too great to survive, the economy was weak, the stock was worth no more than $2-3 and they expected the dividend to go away. For 5 months the stock never traded more than $3+ as the S&P's dropped another 600 points to the market lows. 18-20 months or so later HUN was $21 and still paying its $0.40 dividend. They all should be this good.
Every idea I've had in this market these last 7-10 months, I know it seems forever had huge short positions from 20-60% of their floats plus much larger illegal shorts. The shorts were getting crushed while we were waiting for that "special event". Some came and didn't help like SIGA/PIP, some didn't like YHOO but maybe finally here. Then some plainly failed such as the CIGX tobacco lawsuit appeal. The market balloon broke and any small, medium or large cap stock with little or no earnings for the next 12-18 months was attacked as fresh meat thrown to lions. In this market no one can stand up to this onslaught.
I still love BTX. Sometime in the next 6 months or so I believe they will announce a good-sized Pharma deal. CEO Dr. West recently bought more stock at $4.40. Insiders are buyers over 90% of the time. So when BTX sells off to $4 or so like today I sell a few more ITM puts and on rallies toward $5 I sell ATM calls I'm now using Mar 2012 strikes. Today BTX announces they hired ex Amgen/DNDN CFO, a great add.
A SIGA analyst sees $300M sales potential company over the next 2-4 years now tells us that the stock's only worth $3.00 down from an earlier $17 target. Sounds like HUN. Go figure. SIGA also has a great future drug pipeline but no real earnings over the next 18 months. I love SIGA. I'm selling ITM puts under $3 and selling OTM calls on rallies. Our real risk is that Ron Perelman, the company’s 30% shareholder, tries to steal the company for $5. He's done this a few times in the past. I'll take $7.00 right now. I'll only lose $2.00.
PIP won big time but what's the good news going forward? They won't get a dime for almost 2 years at best. PIP has a good product pipeline but to enjoy their court win they may have to sell stock into a depressed equity market to provide funding. The stock is dirt cheap. I'm selling ITM puts and I'm under water now but in 2 weeks every call is worthless.
NWCI - what can I say? The stock was $0.75-.80 earlier this year and looking to raise private capital. The company’s patents were voted best new products for 2010 in the hot medical tech area. I’m looking for a quick 50-100% gain in a few months. Don’t forget to check-out the CEO – he’s a loser! He couldn't make up his mind on the best deal. Markets then turned ugly. Now two of the largest equity holders most likely will blow him out then they may try to screw us with lousy deal. I want to add to it if we all come in on same terms they do. Right now the world must think they are going "Banko". If that comes off the table, as I suspect it may soon, we have a $0.40-.50 stock at which time I will sell out.
What can I say about my short term favorite trading stock CIGX. No tobacco suit against RJR to go forward. The stock got crushed. I never loaded the boat until after the announcement then I sold calls OTM for the Jan 2013 strike into the $3 rally. I'm barely holding my own down here with the stock at $2.00 but I own a ton. I'm taking the product now. I will keep you posted. I'm looking for $10 over next 2 years. I hope you all saw the last 2 Alert Emails I just sent out. CIGX up 20% today given the new COX comments. There may be as many as 200 products off this new Anatabine line? This can win in so many ways. Cox loves it and so do I.
I love gold but overall I'm only even after 1 year of trading the GDXJ Indexes given the latest sell off in gold and SA. Friday I sold all lower strike long puts for Jan 2012. I've been selling the ITM strike puts into weakness but rather than close them out into rallies I'd buy lower strike long puts then let the market would tell me what to do. This time I sold the long puts. You know my thoughts where gold will be in the next 2-3 years - much higher!
Selling market rallies worked again today (Monday, Oct 3). We lose a few more dollars on our positions but make food money trading thank God. I'm thinking we test the overnight lows from a few weeks ago(we did today) then with some good news we get a whopper of a short rally to buy more puts when it’s over again. I'm still a better buyer down nearer the lows but an aggressive seller at 1200 and above.
While October's mutual fund selling to square away their tax situation, could make for a hard down this month even if September weren't down so much already. Remember after any October market slide we then head into the seasonally strongest market time from November to April. I'll just continue to trade and try to keep you posted as to the levels.
Please keep those cards and letters coming.
Good Trading,
Stan
702.558.1814
Update – Oct 4 aftermarket. Wow! What can I say after today's action in our stocks. I wanted to get this out to you after the market opened this morning (Oct 4) but I couldn't get it out fast enough. My apology. I added a bit of new data.
We are sitting on the 200 MMA and the 40% buy for the entire up move off the March '09 lows. The market had broken temporarily below today and then tested the August 8th overnight low. See attached monthly chart.
As much as I love my ideas and add to them on weakness the shorts and sellers are simply overwhelming the small buyers. The world is in crisis. The analysts that follow these companies downgrade them or walk away. I saw this happen in HUN back in 12/08. I watched HUN drop from $24 in 1207 to $3 on a busted take over deal. Every analyst said their debt was too great to survive, the economy was weak, the stock was worth no more than $2-3 and they expected the dividend to go away. For 5 months the stock never traded more than $3+ as the S&P's dropped another 600 points to the market lows. 18-20 months or so later HUN was $21 and still paying its $0.40 dividend. They all should be this good.
Every idea I've had in this market these last 7-10 months, I know it seems forever had huge short positions from 20-60% of their floats plus much larger illegal shorts. The shorts were getting crushed while we were waiting for that "special event". Some came and didn't help like SIGA/PIP, some didn't like YHOO but maybe finally here. Then some plainly failed such as the CIGX tobacco lawsuit appeal. The market balloon broke and any small, medium or large cap stock with little or no earnings for the next 12-18 months was attacked as fresh meat thrown to lions. In this market no one can stand up to this onslaught.
I still love BTX. Sometime in the next 6 months or so I believe they will announce a good-sized Pharma deal. CEO Dr. West recently bought more stock at $4.40. Insiders are buyers over 90% of the time. So when BTX sells off to $4 or so like today I sell a few more ITM puts and on rallies toward $5 I sell ATM calls I'm now using Mar 2012 strikes. Today BTX announces they hired ex Amgen/DNDN CFO, a great add.
A SIGA analyst sees $300M sales potential company over the next 2-4 years now tells us that the stock's only worth $3.00 down from an earlier $17 target. Sounds like HUN. Go figure. SIGA also has a great future drug pipeline but no real earnings over the next 18 months. I love SIGA. I'm selling ITM puts under $3 and selling OTM calls on rallies. Our real risk is that Ron Perelman, the company’s 30% shareholder, tries to steal the company for $5. He's done this a few times in the past. I'll take $7.00 right now. I'll only lose $2.00.
PIP won big time but what's the good news going forward? They won't get a dime for almost 2 years at best. PIP has a good product pipeline but to enjoy their court win they may have to sell stock into a depressed equity market to provide funding. The stock is dirt cheap. I'm selling ITM puts and I'm under water now but in 2 weeks every call is worthless.
NWCI - what can I say? The stock was $0.75-.80 earlier this year and looking to raise private capital. The company’s patents were voted best new products for 2010 in the hot medical tech area. I’m looking for a quick 50-100% gain in a few months. Don’t forget to check-out the CEO – he’s a loser! He couldn't make up his mind on the best deal. Markets then turned ugly. Now two of the largest equity holders most likely will blow him out then they may try to screw us with lousy deal. I want to add to it if we all come in on same terms they do. Right now the world must think they are going "Banko". If that comes off the table, as I suspect it may soon, we have a $0.40-.50 stock at which time I will sell out.
What can I say about my short term favorite trading stock CIGX. No tobacco suit against RJR to go forward. The stock got crushed. I never loaded the boat until after the announcement then I sold calls OTM for the Jan 2013 strike into the $3 rally. I'm barely holding my own down here with the stock at $2.00 but I own a ton. I'm taking the product now. I will keep you posted. I'm looking for $10 over next 2 years. I hope you all saw the last 2 Alert Emails I just sent out. CIGX up 20% today given the new COX comments. There may be as many as 200 products off this new Anatabine line? This can win in so many ways. Cox loves it and so do I.
I love gold but overall I'm only even after 1 year of trading the GDXJ Indexes given the latest sell off in gold and SA. Friday I sold all lower strike long puts for Jan 2012. I've been selling the ITM strike puts into weakness but rather than close them out into rallies I'd buy lower strike long puts then let the market would tell me what to do. This time I sold the long puts. You know my thoughts where gold will be in the next 2-3 years - much higher!
Selling market rallies worked again today (Monday, Oct 3). We lose a few more dollars on our positions but make food money trading thank God. I'm thinking we test the overnight lows from a few weeks ago(we did today) then with some good news we get a whopper of a short rally to buy more puts when it’s over again. I'm still a better buyer down nearer the lows but an aggressive seller at 1200 and above.
While October's mutual fund selling to square away their tax situation, could make for a hard down this month even if September weren't down so much already. Remember after any October market slide we then head into the seasonally strongest market time from November to April. I'll just continue to trade and try to keep you posted as to the levels.
Please keep those cards and letters coming.
Good Trading,
Stan
702.558.1814